000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.3N 110.4W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER SURROUNDING AN INTERMITTENT 20 NM DIAMETER EYE.
EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING 
CELIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST N 
OF DUE W AROUND A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 12N96.1W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. DARBY IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N110W TO 04N140W. EXCEPT FOR 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N120W 
AND CONTINUES SW TO WELL BEYOND 24N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF THIS TROUGH.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY OVER THE TEXAS AND 
OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 33N95W HAS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 28N112W TO OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
CRESTING NEAR 20N120W. A UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 16N ALONG 137W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION EVAPORATES QUICKLY IN THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE DRY 
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N110W TO THE EQUATOR 
AT 120W. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 21N100W WITH A TROUGH S 
OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 16N102W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E. THE 
RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE AREA S OF 18N E OF 
116W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE EQUATOR E 
BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NW OF AREA RIDGES E FROM 
28N140W TO 18N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS...NOW NEAR 
15N130W...IS MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT 
THE SUBTROPICS S OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON