000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231701 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. ...CORRECTED DARBY PARAGRAPH... BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 23/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 12.2N 109.2W MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT GIVING CELIA THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CELIA TO REACH 95 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL TRACK OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 23/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 94.8W MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DARBY HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A HINT OF AN EYE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN 80 NM WIDE BAND ALONG 14N98W TO 12N97W TO 11N95W TO 12N95W. DARBY IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N78W TO 10N89W...THEN RESUMES AT 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG N OF AXIS TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N128W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. ABUNDANCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N112W EXTENDING A RIDGE SE BETWEEN CELIA AND THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 14N100W WITH A SECOND RIDGE STRETCHING SW TO NEAR 4N122W. HURRICANE CELIA IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO...TURNING CELIA IN A W-NW TRACK. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATES THE AREA E OF ABOUT 105W. THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT T.S. DARBY BUT SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...GIVING THE SYSTEM A CHANCE TO INTENSIFY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N W OF 114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS...ANALYZED 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N128W...IS PRODUCING AN BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW. THE LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH THESE CONDITIONS MOVING WWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ GR