000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 11.9N 108.0W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
SYSTEM. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING 
CELIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK N OF DUE W 
AROUND A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

TROPICAL DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 94.0W AT 0900 UTC MOVING 
NW OR 305 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM 
OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 94W AND 998W. REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 09N120W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N126W TO
25N132W AND CONTINUES SW TO WELL BEYOND 22N140W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR 21N108W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE 
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AN UPPER LEVELS W OF 115W.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND TROPICAL 
STORM DARBY. THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE 
AREA S OF 18N E OF 112W.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16NW OF 115W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW 
PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS...NOW NEAR 16N127W...IS 
MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITHIN 420 NM NW QUADRANT 
OF BLAS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT 
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH SWELLS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 10 FT WITHIN 24 HOURS.

$$
DGS