000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 11.9N 107.3W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 09 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN 
BANDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE 
AND WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE EYE 
HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY OVERCAST CLOUDS THE PAST FEW HOURS.   
EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING CELIA 
TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK N OF DUE W AROUND A 
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11N93.4W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 08 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
ORGANIZED IN BROKEN BANDS IS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE W 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON 
WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N81W TO 09N126W TO 06N140W. EXCEPT FOR 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ONLY 
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N117W 
AND CONTINUES SW TO WELL BEYOND 22N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 
34N96W HAS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO 
ALONG 27N110W TO OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC CRESTING NEAR 
20N127W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 27N W OF 135W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 133W AND 140W IS EVAPORATING QUICKLY NEAR THE SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF A 
LINE FROM 32N110W TO THE EQUATOR AT 128W. 

UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 5-E. THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER 
THE AREA S OF 18N E OF 112W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 114W.   

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST N OF AREA RIDGES SE FROM 
32N135W TO 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS...NOW NEAR 
16N126W...IS MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT 
THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON