000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 11.8N 108.3W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 08 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT...AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE E QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED IN 
BANDS...IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER AND 
SURROUNDING AN INTERMITTENT 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. EASTERLY SHEAR 
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AND CELIA IS EXPECTED TO STRAIGHTEN 
AND CONTINUE TO TRACK W AROUND A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. REFER TO 
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N93W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.  
THE LOW CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...MOSTLY IN TWO 
LARGE BANDS...IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM NW...AND WITHIN 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. THE BAND E OF CENTER APPEARS TO 
ORGANIZING AT THE MOMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
   
...TROPICAL WAVE...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N78W TO 11N93W TO 07N97W TO 12N106W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 
06N TO THE E OF 90W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N120W 
AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THEN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 
34N96W HAS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO 
ALONG 25N108W AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO A CREST NEAR 
13N134W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 28N W OF 135W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
NEAR 07N137W IS EVAPORATING QUICKLY NEAR THE DISSIPATING 
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF A LINE 
FROM 32N110W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W. 

SE OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THE EXPECTED UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA 
AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W. THE 
RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
110W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE EQUATOR E 
OF 115W.   

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST N OF AREA AT 
32N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 19N103W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS...NOW NEAR 16.5N125W...IS MAINTAINING N TO 
NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON