000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 11.6N 105.3W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEG 07 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM 
IN THE W AND SW QUADRANTS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC SUGGESTING THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE 
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CELIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR 
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N92W. THE LOW CENTER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN A 
BANDING TYPE FEATURE WITHIN 210 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND 
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS 
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
   
...TROPICAL WAVE...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N84W TO 11N91W TO 07N95W TO 10N101W TO 
10N110W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N118W TO 28N125W
AND CONTINUES BEYOND 25N140W AS A SHEAR AXIS. SOME UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS 
NOTED ABOVE AND ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 27N AND WEST OF 123W. 

FURTHER S AND E...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS 
SITUATED TO THE S OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 21N105W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA...AND ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND LOW ALONG 92W. THE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS 
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 112W. SOME OF 
THE MOISTURE CROSSES THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 100W.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AREA NEAR 
34N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO
19N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
THE REMNANT LOW OF BLAS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 17N123W IS 
RESULTING IN A BROAD SWATH OF NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WITHIN 480 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N AND NW QUADRANTS AND NORTHEAST 
WINDS OF 20 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT 
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
COBB