000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA IS NEAR 11.8N 104.7W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEG 07 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS IS 
NEAR 16.8N 122.0W 1010 MB AT 0600 UTC. THE ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS
ARE FROM 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET 
WITHIN 480 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SMALL CLUSTERS MAY FLARE UP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINS DOWN.
   
...TROPICAL WAVE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N92W. THE LOW CENTER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

...ITCZ...

FROM 7N77W TO 11N90W TO 07N95W TO 10N100W TO 12N108W TO 08N120W 
TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
97W AND 102W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N121W TO 28N127W BEYOND
27N140W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N110W 7N140W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 120W...INCLUDING THE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA...AND 
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE SPREADS 
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 110W.
SOME OF THE MOISTURE CROSSES THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 100W.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AREA NEAR 
34N136W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO
23N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO THE SOUTH IS MAINTAINING NORTH-TO-
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT 
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
MT