000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

HURRICANE CELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 103.9W AT 0300 UTC MOVING 
W OR 275 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 270 NM SW AND WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.  
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS IS CENTERED 
NEAR 17.5N 120.5W 1008 MB AT 0000 UTC. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KT...SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...WITHIN 480 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS NO CONVECTION BUT SMALL CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY 
TO FLARE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPINS DOWN.
   
...TROPICAL WAVE...

LOW PRES NEAR 10N92W IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB AND IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 13N92W TO 12N94W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 
07N95W TO 10N110W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N93W TO 09N98W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N118W 
AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 30N104W AND NEAR 
20N103W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 20N121W TO BEYOND 
15N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 29N W OF 120W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N108W TO 10N130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF 120W...INCLUDING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CELIA AND ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE 
RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS OUT OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
110W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE EQUATOR E 
OF 100W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST N OF AREA AT 
34N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 24N114W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO THE S 
IS MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE 
SUBTROPICS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
NELSON