000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

HURRICANE CELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 103.3W AT 2100 UTC MOVING 
W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN INTERMITTENT FEEDER BANDS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. SEE 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 119.9W AT 2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
DEVELOP WITHIN 45 NM OVER SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. FURTHER 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND BLAS WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW 
PRESSURE TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
    
...TROPICAL WAVE...

LOW PRES NEAR 10N91W IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB AND IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OVER NW SEMICIRCLE 
WHERE BANDING IS INTERMITTENT. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 
07N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W AND 
ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N112W TO 08N123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N119W 
AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N104W AND NEAR 
20N100W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 20N121W TO BEYOND 
18N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 30N W OF 120W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N105W TO 10N130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF 120W...INCLUDING HURRICANE CELIA 
AND ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE FANS 
OUT OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
ADVECTED ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 105W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST N OF AREA AT 
34N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 24N114W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO THE S 
IS MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE 
SUBTROPICS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT
OVER THE AREA S OF 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 135W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
NELSON