000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... HURRICANE CELIA CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 102.1W AT 21/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE AND SW QUADRANTS. THE CENTER CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CELIA PREVENTING OUTFLOW OVER THAT PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS CELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 117.1W AT 21/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH JUST ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N118W AS THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND IT CONTINUES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DISPLACED 75 NM NE OF THE SHOWERS. BLAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HRS...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HRS OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W ROM 05N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TO THE E OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT IS JUST TO THE E OF HURRICANE CELIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N92W TO 14N91W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 7N91W TO 5N101W...THEN RESUMES AT 11N108W TO 7N119W TO 8N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-105W...AND 60 NM 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-95W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE FAR N SECTION OF THE AREA W OF 130W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 17N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N112W...AND ANOTHER SW TO 15N140W. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF A LINE FROM 25N112W TO 10N126W AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOSITURE E OF THE SAME LINE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N116W...AND CONTINUES SW TO THE ANTICYCLONE AT 17N136W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT HURRICANE CELIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SE TO NEAR 26N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN BLAS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A LARGE AREA NW OF BLAS TO A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 24N140W. THIS WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS...AND BLAS BECOMING A WEAKENING REMNANT LOW. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY S OF CELIA WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER AN AREA FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. THE AREA OF S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD EXPAND CLOSE TO 48 HRS AS BROAD LOW PRES E OF CELIA REMAINS PERSISTENT SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA...AND WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK LOW. $$ AGUIRRE