000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

HURRICANE CELIA CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 100.9W AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING
W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CELIA CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT UNIFORM BUT COVERS A 
LARGE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 
16N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS NEAR 17.9N 116.0W AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING
W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS 
REDEVELOPED SLIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
IS MOSTLY EXPOSED UNDER HIGH CIRCUS CLOUDS DUE TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF FROM 16.5N116.5W. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS TO THE E OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT 
IS JUST TO THE E OF HURRICANE CELIA. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N80W TO 
07N85W 08N94W 05N104W THEN RESUMES AT 11N108W TO 07N120W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM 
ALONG COAST FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 
86W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE FAR N SECTION OF THE AREA 
W OF 130W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 18N133W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N112W...AND ANOTHER SW TO 
15N140W. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF LINE 25N112W TO 10N126W 
AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOSITURE E OF THE SAME LINE.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS TO THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO IMPACT HURRICANE CELIA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A 
SURFACE RIDGE SE ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW 
CONUS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN 
BETWEEN BLAS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO 20 AND SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A LARGE AREA...PARTICULARLY 
TO THE NW OF BLAS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED FROM 10N TO 
16N BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT 
MAINLY S OF CELIA. WINDS ARE INCREASE TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE AREA BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER 
NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 
THE ITCZ.
 
$$
PAW