000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

AT 20/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. 
HURRICANE CELIA IS CENTERED AT 11.6N 100.3W MOVING W OR 260 DEG 
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 
MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 09N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. 

AT 20/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS IS CENTERED AT 17.9N 114.8W 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER BECOMES ALMOST COMPLETELY 
EXPOSED ON THE N SIDE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N MOVING W 15 KT. 
WAVE IS JUST THE E OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT 
IS JUST TO THE E OF HURRICANE CELIA. ANY CONVECTION IN THE 
VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N87W TO 
THEN RESUMES AT 06N90W TO 08N98W THEN RESUMES AT 11N107W TO 
07N119W TO 08N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE FAR NW SECTION OF THE AREA 
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 20N132W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N112W...AND ANOTHER SW TO 14N137W. A 
MOISTURE PLUME IS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE N PORTION 
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF LINE 25N112W TO 10N126W 
AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOSITURE E OF THE SAME LINE.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 
JUST N OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO 
THE S OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT HURRICANE CELIA BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS 
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NE 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN BLAS 
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS ALLOWING FOR 
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 AND SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN A LARGE 
AREA...PARTICULARLY TO THE NW OF BLAS. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 
CONFINED FROM 10N TO 15N BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT 
OVER THE CENTRAL REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT 
AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE AREA BUT COULD BE 
SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ.
 
$$
PAW