000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 17.5N 112.3W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DURING THE NIGHT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS THE OVERALL CYCLONE STRUCTURE BECOMES LESS SYMMETRICAL INDICATING THAT BLAS IS UNDERGOING WEAKENING AS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EXTREME FAR NE EDGE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY AND CONVECTION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE HAS BLAS TRACKING IN A W TO NW COURSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE AS IT WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS CENTERED AT 12.0N 99.4W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CELIA HAS CHANGES LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER ...EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THIS REMAINS A TIGHTLY WOUND UP SYSTEM FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON....THEN GRADUALLY INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON THE FAR EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TIED TO THE WAVE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE NIGHT...BUT MAY REDEVELOP LATER TODAY. WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N87W 5N94W 5N108W...THEN RESUMES AT 11N108W 8N116W 9N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W-117W AND 120W-122W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRUSHING THE FAR NE SECTION OF THE AREA ...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 21N120W WITH A RIDGE NE TO 25N115W...AND ANOTHER SW TO 19N138W. A BROKEN MOISTURE PLUME IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. PART OF IT IS ALREADY REACHING NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WITH A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS IMPACTING TROPICAL STORM BLAS WHILE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOSITURE WESTWARD TO JUST E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER E OF ABOUT 105W ALLOWING FOR THE TROPICAL STORM CELIA TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS IS RESULTING IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM BLAS AND THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. NE TO E TRADES REMAIN CONFINED FROM 14N TO 27N W OF 125W...AND ARE FORECAST TO SHRINK FROM 10 TO 18N W OF 125W IN 48 HRS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE SE BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ PORTION E OF ABOUT 98W. $$ AGUIRRE