000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192113 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... AT 19/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 16.7N 110.5W MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MICROWAVE IMAGES AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BLAS WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W TO 112W. AT 19/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS CENTERED AT 12.4N 98.0W MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED AND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THUS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS A FEW HOURS AGO THE ORGANIZATION IS BETTER DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W N OF 6N CROSSING COSTA RICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. ANY CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1010 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER PANAMA NEAR 09N79W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG N OF 07N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 06N86W TO 05N104W THEN RESUMES AT 11N109W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N128W TO 07N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 90W TO 96W AND FROM 99W TO 103W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION WITH SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N129W AND DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO OVER NW BAJA. OTHERWISE... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN THE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NE TO NEAR 25N118W...AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 16N133W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE MEXICO/S TEXAS NEAR THE BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS IMPACTING TROPICAL STORM BLAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 117W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN BLAS AND THIS RIDGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVES W. THE AREA OF LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE AREAS OF WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OVER THE SE BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. $$ PAW