000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... AT 19/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 16.3N 109.7W MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF BLAS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BLAS TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 KT THIS EVENING. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS BLAS MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AT 19/1230 UTC...THE LOW PRES THAT WAS CENTERED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. AT 19/1500 UTC...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA. AT THIS TIME...CELIA IS CENTERED 12.5N 97.1W MOVING W-SW OR 245 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARLY THIS MORNING... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION... THIS SYSTEM WAS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A FEW HOURS LATER...THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE WAS A WELL DEFINED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER. AS A RESULT...IT WAS NAMED CELIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W N OF 2N CROSSING WESTERN PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N AND E OF AXIS TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING ALSO THE GULF OF PANAMA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 06N100W THEN RESUMES AT 12N106W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND FROM 128W TO 131W. ...DISCUSSION... SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N128W...DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 24N. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. OTHERWISE... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN THE RIDGE WITH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NE TO NEAR 22N117W...AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 16N143W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WITH A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS IMPACTING TROPICAL STORM BLAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 37N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NW TO N WINDS 20 KT N OF 25N AND E OF 122W TO THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BLAS AND THIS HIGH AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVES WWD. THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND NOW COVERS FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 135W. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE AREAS OF WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND S OF 5N BETWEEN 94W AND 106W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO S TO SW AT 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS S OF 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 97W...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. $$ GR