000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

AT 20/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 16.3N 108.5W 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS NOW HAVING BLAS TO 45 KT BECOMING A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR. 
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OVER SW SEMICIRCLE. 

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 
13N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N96W TO 
12N98W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 15N93W TO 14N96W. THIS 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED... 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W N OF 03N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
07N ACROSS PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W TO 
7N92W TO 06N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N105W TO 9N111W TO 
9N125W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG N OF 06N TO OVER PANAMA 
BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
ITCZ FROM 133W TO 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 13N133W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
NEAR 19N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N121W AND SW TO 
BEYOND 16N140W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE 
TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS FROM THE N PORTION 
OF THE AREA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE FROM 26N109W TO 
10N123W WHILE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 
THE SAME LINE...WHICH INCLUDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. 
BLAS AND THE TROPICAL LOW AT 13N96W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
WINDS ARE TO 20 KT E OF THIS RIDGE TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. NE TRADES OF 20 KT S OF THE 
RIDGE...FROM 9N TO 12N W OF ABOUT 134W ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY 
SHRINK VERY LITTLE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 
104W. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER A PORTION OF 
THAT AREA IN 48 HOURS. 
 
$$
PAW