000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

AT 18/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 16.1N 108.0W 
MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST CALLING FOR BLAS TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 
ABOUT 48 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR. SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. 

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 
13N95W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED 
TODAY...AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A SURFACE 
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY 
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY 
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF 
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W N OF 04N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
6N ACROSS PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 
10N93W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N107W TO 09N127W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF ITCZ FROM 133W TO 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA NEAR 
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N125W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N133W. A SMALL 
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 19N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW 
TO 24N126W AND SW TO 13N143W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF 
TROPICAL STORM BLAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING 
INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE 
FROM 26N109W TO 10N123W WHILE ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS NOTED E OF THE SAME LINE...WHICH INCLUDES CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BLAS AND THE TROPICAL LOW AT 13N95W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THIS RIDGE TO ALONG 
THE W COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NE 
TRADES OF 20 KT S OF THE RIDGE...FROM 9N TO 12N W OF ABOUT 134W 
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SHRINK VERY LITTLE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 
104W. SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS.
 
$$
PAW