000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 15.8N 106.7W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N107W TO 17N110W. AFTER APPEARING RATHER RAGGED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BLAS IS MAKING A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY IN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS. BLAS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE IT MAINTAINS PRESENT MOTION. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N95W TO 9N97W WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N96W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NW 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 6N91W 10N102W 8N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-123W AND BETWEEN 135W-139W. S OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 2N-6N E OF 82W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N85W TO 6N90W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N126W... AND EXTENDS SE TO 20N121W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 16N124W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 8N133W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 13N145W WITH A RIDGE ENDING E TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 21N130W. MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 27N129W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE FROM 32N104W TO 10N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NE MEXICO AT 26N100W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 17N122W AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE TO 10N85W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO S OF 24N AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N E OF 112W...WHICH INCLUDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BLAS...THE REMNANTS OF TD-3E AND A TROPICAL LOW AT 13.5N95W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS IS ADVECTED SW TO ALONG 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 115W MAKING THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE MOIST S OF 18N E OF 117W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N135W...AND REACHES TO NEAR 22N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N AND W OF ABOUT 120W. NW TO N WINDS E OF THIS RIDGE TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ARE 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. NE TRADES OF 20 KT S OF THE RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 14N W OF ABOUT 134W ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SHRINK VERY LITTLE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. SE TO S WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 8N W OF 110..WHILE S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SWELLS ARE S OF 5N AND E OF 91W. SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS ARE EXPECTED E OF 91W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE