000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 15.5N 106.4W AT 0300 UTC  
MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE IN BANDS WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE E...AND WITHIN 240 NM 
OVER THE W SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

LOW PRES CONTINUES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13.5N95W ESTIMATED 
AT 1010 MB. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED IN A DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 
05N98W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY THEN REFORMS ALONG 10N105W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N82W TO 05N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W 
AND 120W...BETWEEN 124W AND 129W...AND W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N115W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO 20N120W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 12N131W...WITH A 
TROUGH CONTINUING S FROM THE CYCLONE AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 
132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 13N145W WITH 
A RIDGE ENDING E TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 21N130W. MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... 
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 27N129W. OTHERWISE...THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE FROM 32N104W TO 10N130W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 26N102W WITH A RIDGE 
SW TO 17N122W AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE TO 10N85W. ASSOCIATED 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO S OF 
24N AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N E OF 112W...WHICH 
INCLUDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS BLAS...THE REMNANTS OF 
TD-3E AND A TROPICAL LOW AT 13.5N95W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS IS ADVECTED SW TO ALONG 03N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 115W MAKING THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE MOIST S OF 
18N E OF 117W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 10N120W.  
NORTHERLY WINDS E OF THIS RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ARE AT 15-20 KT AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FOR A DAY AND SPREADING FURTHER W TO ALL WATERS N OF 25N E OF 
120W. NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 15N W OF ABOUT 
125W...ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
SAT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...RESULTING 
IN SEAS TO 9 FT...ARE NOTED S OF 08N W OF 100W AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
$$
NELSON