000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 15.2N 105.8W AT 2100 UTC  
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
50 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE 
W QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE E...AND 
WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE W...SEMICIRCLES. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS /WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

LOW PRES HAS FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N94W 1010 MB.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS 
FORWARD SPEED IN A DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 08N79W TO 08N83W TO 
12N91W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY THEN REFORMS ALONG 10N103W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N80W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
08N123W TO 09N130W...AND A LINE FROM 08N132W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM OF 13N99W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.  

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N117W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO 20N120W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 13N131W WITH A 
TROUGH CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 134W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 13N145W WITH A RIDGE 
ENDING E TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 20N127W. MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... 
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N143W TO 25N130W. OTHERWISE...THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE FROM 32N100W TO 10N140W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 26N102W WITH A RIDGE 
SW TO 13N116W AND A RIDGE SE TO 10N86W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO S OF 24N AND 
OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N E OF 112W...WHICH INCLUDES 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS BLAS...THE REMNANTS OF TD-3E AND A 
TROPICAL LOW AT 13N94W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
THESE AREAS IS ADVECTED SW TO ALONG 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 115W 
MAKING THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE MOIST S OF 2N E OF 120W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 10N120W.  
NORTHERLY WINDS E OF THIS RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ARE AT 15-20 KT AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FOR A DAY BEFORE RETRACTING N OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 
125W. NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 120W... 
ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...RESULTING 
IN SEAS TO 9 FT...ARE NOTED S OF 08N W OF 100W AND EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FRO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
$$
NELSON