000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 97.4W 1007 MB AT 
17/0900 UTC IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 75 
NM AND 180 NM E QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION. TWO-E IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS IT TRACKS 
SLOWLY IN A GENERAL W TO NW TRACK THAT PARALLELS THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES 
ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND SOUTHERN GUERRERO...WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

A LOW OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N106W. THE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM SW 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 06N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER 
GUATEMALA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 11N...NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE N 
OF 11N...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM W OF 
THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N. THE WAVE CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONGLY 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE 
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE WAVE AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 
12N102W TO 08N118W TO 09N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 
108W AS WELL AS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 
NW U.S. THROUGH 30N115W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 
14N128W AND CONTINUES SW TO 06N134W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS U.S. STATES. TO THE 
W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM 15N140W TO A CREST 26N135W 
WITH A 50-70 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO ITS N. THIS JET LIES 
ON THE E SIDE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH N OF HAWAII. 
AT THE SURFACE...A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 41N145W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 30N130W TO 15N122W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE 
WESTERN U.S. IS INDUCING 20 KT WINDS IN N WATERS WHILE A 
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER W WATERS CAUSED BY THE MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF HAWAII HAS ALSO BROUGHT WINDS TO 
20 KT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TURN NEGATIVE 
TILT AND CARRY THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA...REDUCING THE 
PRES GRADIENT BRIEFLY BEFORE A BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM 
THE UPPER TROUGH N OF HAWAII SHIFTS E INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MEAN 
TROUGH AND AGAIN DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN 
U.S.. AS A RESULT...THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO NE 
WATERS BY THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING WITHIN 150 NM W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING 
TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 20N 
AND FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 115W WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. 

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 14N W 
OF 133W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH FRI 
MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THEN THROUGH SAT MORNING. 

E OF 110W...
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID 
LEVELS CONTINUES OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE MAX LIES BETWEEN TWO-E AND THE LOW NEAR 15N106W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA WITH SEAS WITH OFFSHORE WAVES IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE 
WITH 14-16 SECOND PERIODS. THIS SWELL WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT 
STRETCHES N ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU INTO FRI AND 
TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SAT MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER