000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 96.6W 1007 MB AT 17/0300 UTC IS MOVING NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NW OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WELL E OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY IN A GENERAL W TO NW TRACK AND PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A LOW OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N106W...AND IS ALSO NEARLY STATIONARY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WNW. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 6N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10N91W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 10N THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES WNW THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 07N79W TO 10N90W TO 14N95W TO 09N110W TO 07N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N122W TO A DEVELOPING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO 11N130W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N141W IS MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A RIDGE CRESTING NNE TO 32N134W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N136W TO NEAR 20N119W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 11 FT IN N SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 15N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 KT BY FRI. E OF 110W... DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AS A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING TO THE S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE EQUATOR AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THU. $$ COBB