000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162133 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 95.8W 1007 MB AT 16/2100 UTC IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 3 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S AND SW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY IN A GENERAL W TO NW TRACK AND PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A LOW OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N106W...AND IS ALSO NEARLY STATIONARY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR HAS SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 6N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10N90W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N TO 13N. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES WNW THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 07N79W TO 10N90W TO 13N95W TO 09N110W TO 07N120W TO 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N122W TO A DEVELOPING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO 11N130W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N141W IS MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A RIDGE CRESTING NNE TO 32N134W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N136W TO NEAR 20N119W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 11 FT IN N SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 15N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 KT BY FRI. E OF 110W... DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AS A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING TO THE S OF THE TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS LATER TODAY AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU. $$ COBB