000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... THE LOW THAT HAD PERSISTED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530 UTC NEARLY STATIONARY. CONVECTION DESCRIBED AS SCATTERED STRONG INTENSITY IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S AND SW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON LIKE ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK IN A GENERAL W TO NW TRACK. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N106W...AND IS ALSO NEARLY STATIONARY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE E SEMICIRCLE... HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 6N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 10N89W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 13N AND ALSO ALONG THE WAVE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES W-NW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 7N79W TO 10N92W TO 13N101W TO 8N112W TO 7N12WW TO 8N132W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-127W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N118W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 27N122W TO A DEVELOPING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N125W AND CONTINUES SW TO 11N130W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 14N140W IS MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A RIDGE CREST N TO 32N136W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N136W TO NEAR 20N119W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 15N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU. E OF 110W... DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AS A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING TO THE S OF THE TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS LATER TODAY AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU. $$ AGUIRRE