000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AN AREA OF LOW PRES SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS CENTERED NEAR 15N96W WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. THE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 150 NM W AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AS WELL AS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 15N106W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 75 NM SE QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 05N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS...MOVING W AT 7 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 11N. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE MOMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM COULD FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES W-NW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W TO 11N100W TO 07N120W TO 08N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N120W TO 10N130W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 14N140W IS MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A RIDGE CREST N TO 32N136W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 42N144W THROUGH 30N136W TO 13N120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 15N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU. E OF 110W... THE SURFACE LOW SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALSO LIES S OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N95W. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED AND INTO THU ON THE S SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ON THE N SIDE OF A 30 KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY JET. THE JET IS EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWARD LATE THU INTO FRI...INCREASING THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW AND THE LOW TO ITS W MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION LIE WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING TO THE S OF THE TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS LATER TODAY AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU. $$ SCHAUER