000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUN 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 15N96W WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. THE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A BURST OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW AMINLY IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE MEXICAN COAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WNW. THERE IS A MODERATE...40 PERCENT CHANCE...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 15N106W. THE SYSTEM WAS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER...BUT OVER THE PAST HOUR A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NMIN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MODERATE...50 PERCENT CHANCE...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 5N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING W AT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 12N. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRES SYSTEM COULD FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NE SHEAR ON THU. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 11N89W TO 14N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO 24N123W THEN CONTINUES AS A NARROW TROUGH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS WITH A BASE 12N128W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N138W IS MOVING SLOWLY E WITH A RIDGE CREST N TO 32N130W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N134W TO 21N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N140W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 11N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU. E OF 110W... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W SWD TO 17N96W AND WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONDITIONS OVER THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NW. THIS LOW AND THE LOW TO ITS W MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION LIE WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. WITH REFERENCE TO THE MARINE ASPECT OF THE AREA...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME S WATERS WED...AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU. $$ COBB