000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ITS VICINITY HAS A MEAN LOW POSITION NEAR 14N96W WITH A PRES OF 1008 MB. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N97W TO 16N103W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE MEXICAN COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A MODERATE...40 PERCENT CHANCE...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB IS STATIONARY NEAR 14N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW AND 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MODERATE...50 PERCENT CHANCE...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 5N EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING W AT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 12N. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRES SYSTEM COULD FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NE SHEAR ON THU. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 11N88W TO 13N96W TO 09N110W TO 09N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA SW TO 24N123W THEN CONTINUES AS A NARROW TROUGH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS WITH A BASE 12N128W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N138W IS MOVING SLOWLY E WITH A RIDGE CREST N TO 32N130W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N134W TO 21N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N140W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 11N WHERE PATCHES OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 130W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH THU. E OF 110W... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W SWD TO 17N96W AND WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONDITIONS OVER THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NW. THIS LOW AND THE LOW TO ITS W MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION LIE WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. WITH REFERENCE TO THE MARINE ASPECT OF THE AREA...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME S WATERS WED...AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THU. $$ COBB