000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 14N105W. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR THIS LOW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY FOUND WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W N OF 06N TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA MOVING W AT 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 13N. MANY OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH A REGION OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NE SHEAR ON THU. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 14N93W TO 08N115W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A 1042 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED WELL TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 42N144W. THE HIGH EXTENDS VERTICALLY TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 41N151W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FORECAST WATERS NEAR 17N139W. BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES LIES A 40 TO 60 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF TROUGHING BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AND A CUT OFF LOW N OF HAWAII. THIS DISRUPTION IN THE RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES TO THE SURFACE...WITH A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT FOUND PRIMARILY N OF THE AREA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0558 UTC SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER FAR NW FORECAST WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE LOW CENTERED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHEDS VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH NW FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD E THROUGH N FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE FOUND N OF 15N W OF 110W...WITH CIRRUS ALSO FOUND OVER NW WATERS MARKING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 131W. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK W THROUGH THU MORNING. E OF 110W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF ITS SW AND E QUADRANTS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0412 UTC SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS FEEDING INTO THE SURFACE LOW. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 20-30 KT JET WHICH LIES ON THE E SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM 15N96W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONDITIONS OVER THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOW AND THE LOW TO ITS W MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION LIE WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS MIGRATING TOWARD ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE EASTERN LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SHEARED AS ITS VORT ENERGY COMBINES WITH THE WESTERN LOW. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DISSIPATING OF THE EASTERN LOW WED AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN LOW AS IT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL THAT HAS HELPED KEEP SEAS S OF BOTH LOWS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A NEW SURGE OF SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE WATERS WED. $$ SCHAUER