000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W N OF 05N TO ACROSS COSTA RICA 
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF COSTA RICA AND OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA. SOME OF THE COMPUTER 
MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 
OVER THE EPAC ON THU. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE WAVE 
AS IT MOVES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO THE SE OF AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N89W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 95W N OF 
09N WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N95W. AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS INDICATED WIND OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT OF 
LOW. A SHIP...3FMH7...JUST SE OF CENTER REPORTED SW WINDS OF 20 
KT AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS 
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...BUT FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO AS IT MOVES LITTLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS. 

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N105W. 
MB MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. A ASCAT PASS FROM 1704 UTC SHOWED THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS OF 20 
KT WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A NEW BURST OF 
CONVECTION DEVELOPED WITHIN AROUND 30 NM W OF CENTER NEAR 0000 
UTC. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N79W TO 
11N100W TO 09N120W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 99W TO 
105W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 10N. 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST WEST OF AREA NEAR 15N142W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE OVER THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER RIDGE 
STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED INLAND MEXICO OVER 
THE STATE OF JALISCO TO NEAR 8N120W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS TO 
28N120W THEN S ALONG 123W TO 10N. UPPER LEVEL NE TO E WINDS 
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 10N. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS E OF LINE FROM 25N108W TO 6N125W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 116W. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A 
BROAD AREA OF N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS 
MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 128W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A 1846 UTC ASCAT PASS 
ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH COVERING FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 128W. THE  
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL THAT MOVED INTO S CENTRAL AND SE 
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. CURRENTLY...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FT 
WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL SHOULD REACH THE 
FAR N WATERS LATE TUE.

$$
GR