000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 06N TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO 
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE POSITION IS ADJUSTED BASED ON AN 
ASCAT PASS AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION THAT SHOWS 
A SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION 
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR 
THE WAVE AS IT MOVES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO THE SE OF 
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N89W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 08N WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY 
1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 14N95W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED WIND 
OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW. DEVELOPMENT...IF 
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH- 
NORTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 
180 NM SE AND 120 NM SW QUADRANTS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N105W MB MOVING WNW 5-10 
KT. A ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN A LARGE 
CLUSTER IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME 
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 
12N95W TO 10N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 87W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W...AND 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 128W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 10N. 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST WEST OF AREA NEAR 15N142W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE OVER THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER RIDGE 
STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED INLAND MEXICO OVER 
THE STATE OF JALISCO TO NEAR 8N120W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS TO 
28N120W THEN S ALONG 123W TO 10N. UPPER LEVEL NE TO E WINDS 
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 10N. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS E OF LINE FROM 25N108W TO 6N125W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS PARTICULARLY NW 
OF LINE FROM 30N127W TO 25N140W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT 
PASS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT. 

THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL THAT MOVED INTO S CENTRAL AND SE 
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. CURRENTLY...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FT 
WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN.

$$
GR