000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W N OF 04N TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 6N TO 8N. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE WAVE AS IT MOVES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO THE SE OF AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N89W. A NARY STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 14N95W. THIS LOW WAS FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY LEFT BEHIND BY A TROPICAL THAT IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE...AND IS NOW PART OF AN ESTABLISHED CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A DRIFT TO THE N WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS AND CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. A MORE EVOLVED LOW OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 14N105W MB MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0432 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED THE FAR E EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN A LARGE CLUSTER IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO POSSIBLY UNDERGO SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N79W 10N85W 14N95W 9N106W 9N116W 10N129W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-96W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N80W TO 5N82W... WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N90W TO 6N94W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N132W TO 6N135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES IN PLACE N OF 10N. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S AND NW MEXICO EXTENDS FROM YUMA...ARIZONA TO 28N116W THEN W ALONG 28N TO 123W AND FINALLY S ALONG 123W TO 13N. THIS TROUGH LIES BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE WESTERN RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 9N142W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 30N128W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 112W. AT THE SURFACE..A RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N135W TO 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE LOW CENTERED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHEDS VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH NW FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD E THROUGH N FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS REDUCED THE FRESH TRADE WINDS TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 127W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO CABO CORRIENTES...MEXICO AND THEN TO 10N112W. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES...AND IS HELPING TO ACTIVATE CONVECTION WITH THE LOWS. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL THAT MOVED INTO S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CURRENTLY...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FT WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN. $$ AGUIRRE