000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W N OF 04N CROSSING SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE N OF 04N. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE WAVE AS IT MOVES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N89W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING W AROUND 5 KT. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NOW LIES JUST E OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N106W. THIS LOW IS A REFLECTION OF THE VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THE WAVE AS THAT ENERGY IS DRAWN TO THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS E ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS VORT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-NE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GYRE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE 0432 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WINDS WERE ONLY TO 20 KT GENERALLY BETWEEN 180 NM AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N78W TO 08N82W TO 11N99W TO 08N115W TO 09N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 96W AS WELL AS BETWEEN 120 NM AND 330 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. ...DISCUSSION... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE N OF 10N. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S AND NW MEXICO EXTENDS FROM YUMA...ARIZONA TO 28N116W THEN W ALONG 28N TO 123W AND FINALLY S ALONG 123W TO 13N. THIS TROUGH LIES BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE WESTERN RIDGE ORIGINATES AT AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N140W AND PASSES NE TO 30N128W. STRATOCUMULUS DOMINATES THE SKIES N OF 15N W OF 112W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1042 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED WELL TO THE N NEAR 42N147W. A COLD FRONT HAD CUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE YESTERDAY. THAT COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED...BUT HIGH PRES IS STILL SLOW TO FILL IN TO THE S. AS A RESULT...THE 0618 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER NW WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE LOW CENTERED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHEDS VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH NW FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD E THROUGH N FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS REDUCED THE FRESH TRADE WINDS TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ TO 16N W OF 127W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO CABO CORRIENTES...MEXICO AND THEN TO 10N112W. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 10N TO 16N AND THIS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS HELPING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW LIES JUST E OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N106W. A SECOND 1011 MB SURFACE LOW LIES TO THE E NEAR 14N95W...UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 20-30 KT JET WHICH LIES ON THE E SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM 15N98W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N93W. THESE TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS LIE WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOW MIGRATING TOWARD ONE ANOTHER MON...WITH THE EASTERN LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SHEARED AS ITS VORT ENERGY COMBINES WITH THE WESTERN LOW. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM HERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DISSIPATING OF THE EASTERN LOW ON TUE NIGHT AND VERY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN LOW AS IT DRIFTS E-NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL THAT MOVED INTO S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CURRENTLY...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FT WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN. $$ SCHAUER