000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W N OF 05N CROSSING W PANAMA INTO THE 
SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W N OF 
08N. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM W OF LOW FROM 13N TO 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W FROM 10N TO 18N WITH 1011 MB LOW 
NEAR 14N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF LOW FROM 13N TO 15N. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE 
WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR 13N105W AND REMAIN STATIONARY THERE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS 
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N78W TO 
09N94W TO 11N110W TO 10N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 90W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 07N88W AND NEAR 09N92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE N OF 10N. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTER NEAR 17N135W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N OVER THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 
EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 10N107W. IN 
BETWEEN...THERE IS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE SW CONUS TO NEAR 23N117W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 10N. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS E OF LINE FROM 24N108W TO 10N120W...AND OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N148W IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND SLOWLY SHIFT E. THIS HIGH 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COVERING MAINLY N OF 
15N AND W OF 110W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N 
AND W OF 130W. BOTH...A WINDSAT PASS AND MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS 
CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT. 

REGIONAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY N SWELL AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SW SWELL TRAIN HAS 
REACHED THE COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA PARTICULARLY 
S OF 23N...WITH PERIODS AROUND 17-18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. 
THE HIGHEST SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT CAN BE FOUND MAINLY S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 102W...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE N 
SWELL DOMINATES THE N WATERS.

$$
GR