000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W N OF 03N CROSSING W PANAMA INTO THE 
SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. THIS 
ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 07N TO 17N WITH 1011 MB LOW 
NEAR 14N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 
180 NM E OF AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N...AND WITHIN AROUND 180 NM W OF 
AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT 
THE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR 
13N105W AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 KT 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W FROM 08N TO 14N. THERE IS CURRENTLY 
LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH ONLY A FEW 
SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N85W TO 
13N100W TO 08N113W TO 10N122W TO 06N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS 
OUTLINED ON THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE N OF 10N. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTER NEAR 17N135W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N OVER THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 
EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N110W. IN 
BETWEEN...THERE IS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE SW CONUS TO NEAR 23N117W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES WINDS 
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 10N. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS E OF LINE FROM 25N108W TO 10N120W...AND OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N148W IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND SLOWLY SHIFT E. THIS HIGH 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COVERING MAINLY N OF 
15N AND W OF 110W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N 
AND W OF 130W. BOTH...A WINDSAT PASS AND MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS 
CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT. 

REGIONAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY N SWELL AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SW SWELL TRAIN HAS 
REACHED THE COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA PARTICULARLY 
S OF 23N ..WITH PERIODS AROUND 17-18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. 
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTHWARD OVER S CENTRAL 
AND SE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
REACH 8-9 FT OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. 
THE N SWELL DOMINATES THE N WATERS.

$$
GR