000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W N OF 04N. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE FROM 04N TO 
08N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 06N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE N OF 12N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE FROM 06N TO 12N. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM W OF WAVE FROM 
10N TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM W OF WAVE N OF 13N. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE 
AREA. 

TROPICAL WAVE LIES FROM 18N105W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N106W 
THEN TO 07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME 
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE 
DRAWN BACK E INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC GYRE OVER E 
WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W N OF 06N. THERE IS CURRENTLY LIMITED 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 08.5N84W TO 
14.5N99W TO 10N115W TO 10N120W TO 06.5N135W TO 06.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
83W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE N OF 10N. DEEP LAYER 
TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S AND NW MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N113W TO 19N116W. THIS TROUGH LIES BETWEEN TWO 
ANTICYCLONES. THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N136W. 
WITH THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. A 
1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N151W IS EXPECTED TO 
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND SLOWLY SHIFT E...WITH RIDGING TO ITS S 
EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE N TO NE WINDS OVER NW 
WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TRADES 
ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT. 

SW SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS WITH SEAS 
TO 9 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN HAS REACHED THE 
COASTLINE OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH PERIODS AROUND 17-18 
SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 8-9 FT OFF THE COAST OF 
PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
AL