000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W N OF 04N MOVING W AT 12 KT. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 03N TO 06N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N91W TO 07N95W MOVING W AT 7 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM NW OF WAVE N OF 13N INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE LIES FROM 17N104W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1013 MB LOW NEAR 12N106W AND THEN TO 06N107W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W AND 360 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 17N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE 0452 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AT 12N WHILE CLOUD MOTION AS OBSERVED ON THE LATEST NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DRAWN BACK E INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC GYRE OVER E WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N118W TO 05N120W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE 1748 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S TO SW WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF THE ITCZ AS DID THE 0120 UTC WINDSAT PASS. THE 0454 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT CAPTURE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE WAVE S OF THE ITCZ...BUT HELPS PLACE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON ITS W SIDE AND NE WINDS JUST TO ITS E. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THIS WAVE WILL MOVE UNDER INCREASING NE SHEAR THAT WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 13N97W TO 10N113W TO 11N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE N OF 10N. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S AND NW MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N113W TO 14N116W. THIS TROUGH LIES BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE WESTERN RIDGE ORIGINATES AT AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N139W THROUGH 30N130W AND N ALONG 130W TO 40N. STRATOCUMULUS DOMINATES THE SKIES N OF 17N W OF 112W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIES N OF THE AREA FROM THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER TO 34N140W. N TO NE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE TO GALE FORCE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RESULTING N SWELL OVER 8 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 20N. THIS FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...REDUCING THE FRESH TRADE WINDS TO A REGION N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE 1041 MB HIGH NEAR 42N149W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND SLOWLY SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES...WITH RIDGING TO ITS S EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE N TO NE WINDS OVER NW WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 KT. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N102W SW TO 13N110W. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N104W TO 06N107W...AND THE INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS HELPED THE CAUSE FOR INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOW CENTER NOW NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AT 12N. ASIDE FROM THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVES...THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTED IN THE TROPICS IS THE SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN HAS REACHED THE COASTLINE OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH PERIODS AROUND 17-18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTHWARD OVER S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 8-9 FT OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER