000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA MOVING W 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 8N93W MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE MONSOON GYRE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS HAVE DECREASE SOME SINCE YESTERDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. A MORE DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N103W TO 9N105W MOVING W 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-14N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE MAXIMUM BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AS OBSERVED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN ELONGATED NW TO SE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-105W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT VORTICITY FROM THE WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW TO FORM NEAR 12N104W IN 24 HRS...AND OR DRIFT N BY 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED FROM 15N115W TO 6N116W IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N92W 11N100W 9N110W 9N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S SSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 19N119W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO ITS SW NEAR 12N135W MOVING WESTWARD WITH A RIDGE NE TO A CREST WELL NE OF THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N140W. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NE MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 14N115W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA APPROACHING THE NW SIDE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES N TO 25N WHERE IT THEN TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT DISSIPATES AROUND 130W AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA E OF LINE FROM 17N110W TO 10N118W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...AND FILTERS NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N136W AND REACHES SE TO 24N121W TO NEAR 21N114W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT IN A N SWELL FOUND IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 100W IN 48 HRS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N AND NE SWELL. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE ITCZ NEAR 1N121W WITH A TROUGH NW TO 2N140W. E OF 110W... A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 13N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N97W NW TO 9N108W...AND MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WAVE ALONG 16N103W 9N105W. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THIS AREA S OF 10N UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE N TO NE IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTING S IN THE N TO NE UPPER FLOW REACHING TO 4N. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ITCZ RELATED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. IN 48 HRS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE S TO SW 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THAT MAY FORM WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 16N101W TO 7N103W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W-118W...AND S OF 7N E OF 87W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL IN 48 HRS. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SE MEXICAN COAST AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 23N-26N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 6 HRS OR EARLIER AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NW TO SE ORIENTED BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH AND HIGH PRES RIDGING W OF 115W WEAKEN. $$ AGUIRRE