000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010 CORRECTED E OF 110W SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA MOVING W 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N90W TO 7N94W MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE MONSOON GYRE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS HAVE DECREASE SOME SINCE YESTERDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. A MORE DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N101W TO 7N103W MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 103W-107W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 100W-104W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE MAXIMUM BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ASCAT DATA FR0M AROUND 1600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED ASCAT WHAT APPEARED TO AN ELONGATED NW TO SE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-103W...HOWEVER IT IS RATHER WEAK SINCE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT VORTICITY FROM THE WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW TO FORM NEAR 11N102W IN 24 HRS...THEN MOVE NW TO NEAR 12N103W IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N115W TO 6N116W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TIED THE WAVE...A MOSTLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS INHIBITING FROM OTHER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N92W 11N100W 9N110W 9N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W...AND BETWEEN 115W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S SSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 19N119W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO ITS SW NEAR 16N136W MOVING WESTWARD WITH A RIDGE NE TO A CREST WELL NE OF THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N140W. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NE MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 14N115W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA APPROACHING THE NW SIDE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES N TO 24N WHERE IT THEN TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT DISSIPATES AROUND 130W AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA E OF LINE FROM 17N110W TO 10N118W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...AND FILTERS NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N136W AND REACHES SE TO 25N127W TO NEAR 21N116W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT IN A N SWELL FOUND IN THIS AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT IN ABOUT 48 HRS. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 100W IN 48 HRS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N AND NE SWELL. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE ITCZ NEAR 1N121W WITH A TROUGH NW TO 2N140W. E OF 110W...CORRECTED A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 13N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N97W NW TO 9N108W...AND MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WAVE ALONG 16N101W 7N103W. ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THIS AREA S OF 10N UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE N TO NE IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTING S IN THE N TO NE UPPER FLOW REACHING TO 4N. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ITCZ RELATED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. IN 48 HRS...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE S TO SW 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THAT MAY FORM WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 16N101W TO 7N103W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W-118W...AND S OF 7N E OF 87W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL IN 48 HRS. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SE MEXICAN COAST AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 23N-26N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HRS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NW TO SE ORIENTED BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH AND HIGH PRES RIDGING W OF 115W WEAKEN. $$ AGUIRRE