000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA MOVING W 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N90W TO 7N94W MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE MONSOON GYRE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS HAVE DECREASE SOME SINCE YESTERDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DON'T DEVELOP IT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. A MORE DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N101W TO 7N103W MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 103W-107W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 100W-104W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE MAXIMUM BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ASCAT DATA FR0M AROUND 1600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED ASCAT WHAT APPEARED TO AN ELONGATED NW TO SE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-103W...HOWEVER IT IS RATHER WEAK SINCE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT VORTICITY FROM THE WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW TO FORM NEAR 11N102W IN 24 HRS...THEN MOVE NW TO NEAR 12N103W IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N115W TO 6N116W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TIED THE WAVE...A MOSTLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS INHIBITING FROM OTHER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N92W 11N100W 9N110W 9N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-100W AND ALSO BETWEEN 114W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S SSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 19N119W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO ITS SW NEAR 16N136W MOVING WESTWARD WITH A RIDGE NE TO A CREST WELL NE OF THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N140W. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NE MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 14N115W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA APPROACHING THE NW SIDE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES N TO 24N WHERE IT THEN TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT DISSIPATES AROUND 130W AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA E OF LINE FROM 17N110W TO 10N118W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...AND FILTERS NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N136W AND REACHES SE TO 25N127W TO NEAR 21N116W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT IN A N SWELL FOUND IN THIS AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT IN ABOUT 48 HRS. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 100W IN 48 HRS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N AND NE SWELL. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE ITCZ NEAR 1N121W WITH A TROUGH NW TO 2N140W. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W ALONG 108W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT JUST E OF THE TROUGH AS NOTED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N104W TO 6N106W...AND THAT WITH ITCZ IN ITS VICINITY. THESE UPPER WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE S TO SW 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH THAT MAY FORM WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 16N101W TO 7N103W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S-SW TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL. S OF 6N BETWEEN 103W-112W SE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN 24 HRS. BY 48 HRS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 12N102W...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 20N E OF 120W AND SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SE MEXICAN COAST AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 23N-26N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12 HRS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NW TO SE ORIENTED BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH AND HIGH PRES RIDGING W OF 116W WEAKEN. $$ AGUIRRE