000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FROM 06N92W TO 16N87W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W.  

TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FROM 06N102W TO 16N100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 
101W.

TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 08N115W TO 16N113W. CONVECTION IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ DESCRIBED BELOW. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 
10N86W TO 12N94W TO 09N101W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS AND 180 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW U.S. TO 18N117W. UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS N OF 24N W OF THIS TROUGH. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N134W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING E ACROSS 17N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA HAS 
WEAKENED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA. A LIMITED 
AREA OF 20 KT TRADES IS FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 133W AS DEPICTED 
FROM LATEST ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRES W OF THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 1043 MB NEAR 42N144W OVERNIGHT SUN 
NIGHT...ALLOWING 20 KT N WINDS IN N WATERS TO EXPAND OVER THE NW 
WATERS. 

SW SWELL IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH S WATERS. THIS 
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 11 FT 
OVER S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS 
SWELL TRAIN WILL REACH MUCH OF THE COASTLINE OVER FORECAST 
WATERS S OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS 
AROUND 18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT.

$$
AL