000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120950 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 04N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE...LYING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 390 NM E OF THE WAVE N OF 13N TO THE MEXICAN COAST...BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE ONE DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER E-NE SHEAR ALOFT THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THIS WAVE BY MON MORNING THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE W...POSSIBLY BECOMING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N106W TO 12N105W TO 17N102W MOVING W 5 KT. ASIDE FROM THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE ALONG 97W...THERE IS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE. BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE WAVE IS HELPING THE CAUSE FOR CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMA EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N84W TO 08N96W TO 09N108W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 114W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S AND NW MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N114W TO 17N118W. THIS TROUGH SPLITS UP THE RIDGING BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES ALOFT...ONE NEAR 26N98W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N127W. THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD THROUGH 26N127W TO OVER A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES SYSTEM NEAR 36N136W. STRATOCUMULUS DOMINATES THE SKIES N OF 15N W OF 110W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 30N130W TO NEAR 17N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND 998 MB SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SW U.S. HAS INDUCED 20 KT N WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA AND W TO NEAR 133W...WITH N SWELL TO 13 FT IN THIS AREA ORIGINATING FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGING HAS ALSO INDUCED FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 27N ACCORDING TO THE 0658 UTC ASCAT PASS AND THE 0316 UTC WINDSAT PASS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER FROM THE W WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT OVER N WATERS AS WELL AS THE TRADES. THE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OBSERVED BY THE 0518 UTC ASCAT PASS N OF 25N WILL DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES W OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 1043 MB NEAR 42N144W OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING 20 KT N WINDS IN N WATERS TO EXPAND IN AREA OVER NW WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTED IN THE TROPICS IS THE SW SWELL CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH S WATERS. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 11 FT OVER S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS SAT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL REACH MUCH OF THE COASTLINE OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNSET SAT...WITH PERIODS AROUND 18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. $$ SCHAUER