000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 4N MOVING W 13 KT. MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. A SMALL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AS WAVE REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-15N. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N93W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO UNDER UNFAVORABLE ELY WINDS ALOFT PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM ENDURING ANY DURATION OR BECOMING CONCENTRATED. MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO ADVECT SOME VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N102W TO 12N105W TO 6N106W MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY NOTICEABLE MAXIMUM BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THE MOST OUTER PERIPHERY OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE TO 97W. LOW CLOUDS AS NOTED IR NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY CORRELATE WELL WITH THE PARTIAL CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-15N. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE MAY DEVELOP SOME ALLOWING FOR A LOW TO FORM NEAR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 12N103W IN 48 HRS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N100W 8N112W 8N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92W AND 106W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W -133W AND W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S SSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 17N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO ITS SW NEAR 16N128W MOVING WESTWARD...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SE IS NEAR 28N130W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 25N126W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N128W SW TO 12N140W. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 17N115W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N128W AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA AT 23N144W. THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES N TO A LINE FROM 23N128W TO 27N140W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA SE OF LINE FROM 15N110W TO 10N119W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS N OF THE REGION AT 36N135W WITH ITS RIDGE SE TO 26N126W TO 21N115W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W AS SHOWN IN A ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT WERE JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT IN A N SWELL ARE INVADING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SLOWLY DIMINISHES THESE SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 113W-132W IN ABOUT 24 HRS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN A N SWELL AND 8-10 FT IN 48 HRS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF THE ITCZ NEAR 4N128W IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS N AT 16N128W IS RESULTING IN DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ITCZ. THIS IS FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W-133W AND W OF 135W. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W ALONG 108W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT JUST E OF THE TROUGH AS NOTED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N104W TO 6N106W...AND THAT WITH ITCZ IN ITS VICINITY. THESE UPPER WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE S TO SW 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH THAT MAY FORM WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 17N102W TO 12N0105W TO 6N106W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S-SW TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL. S OF 6N BETWEEN 103W-112W SE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN 24 HRS. BY 48 HRS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 12N102W...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 20N E OF 120W AND SEAS 8-10 FT IN A SW SWELL. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SE MEXICAN COAST AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 25N ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS WHILE S TO SW 20 KT BECOME EVIDENT TO THE N OF 28N. BY 30 HRS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NW TO SE ORIENTED BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH AND HIGH PRES RIDGING W OF 116W WEAKEN. $$ AGUIRRE