000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W N OF 4N MOVING W 13 KT. MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW COSTA RICA. ELY SHEAR ALOFT IS NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FOR THE TIME BEING. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-15N. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 8N. THIS WAVE IS ALSO UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ALOFT NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMS TO ATTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DURATION. A BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N104W TO 6N106W MOVING W 10 KT. A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THE MOST OUTER PERIPHERY OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE TO 97W. VISIBLE LOW CLOUDS CORRELATE WELL WITH THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-10N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N100W 8N112W 8N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-138W AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-121W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN U.S SSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 17N125W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO ITS SW NEAR 16N127W...WHILE ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SE IS NEAR 31N133W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N126W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N127W SW TO 12N140W. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS E OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 17N117W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N127W AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA AT 23N144W. THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES N TO 24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THIS AREA SE OF LINE FROM 15N110W TO 10N119W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS N OF THE REGION AT 36N135W WITH ITS RIDGE SE TO 26N126W TO 21N115W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W AS SHOWN IN A ASCAT PASS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NW 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-14 FT IN A N SWELL ARE INVADING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SLOWLY DIMINISHES THESE SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. BY 24 HRS ...ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 113W-132W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN A N SWELL AND 8-10 FT IN 48 HRS. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-5 KT IS ALONG 136W FROM 5N-12N. IT IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W ALONG 108W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT JUST E OF THE TROUGH AS NOTED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N104W TO 6N106W...AND THAT WITH ITCZ IN ITS VICINITY. THESE UPPER WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. WITH REGARDS TO MARINE ISSUES...S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING TO SE AND SE OF THE WAVE ALONG 93W WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS BRINGING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN ABOUT 24 HRS OVER THE AREA S OF 5N BETWEEN 92W-105W WITH WINDS THERE BEING SE TO S TO 20 KT...AND ALSO S OF 6N BETWEEN 105W-129W. SEAS BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN 48 HRS S OF 9N BETWEEN 91W-106W. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20 KT WINDS N OF 25N ARE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 42 HRS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EVER PRESENT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA S THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SLACKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING TROUGH. $$ AGUIRRE