000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111557 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 04N MOVING W 12-15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. 20-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE GFS 700 MB ANALYSIS AS A BROAD TURNING OF THE WINDS S OF 10N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 06N MOVING W 12-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE AXIS S OF 09N. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. THE 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED S WINDS AROUND 20 KT ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ALL FOUR OF OUR PRIMARY MODELS...THE 06Z GFS...06Z NOGAPS...00Z UKMET...AND 00Z ECMWF...DO SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD CLOSED LOW WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS NEAR 12N101W. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 14N103W TO 06N105W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE AT THE MOMENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWS A MAXIMA NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH WAS USEFUL IN PLACING THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N85W TO 11N103W TO 08N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. A TROUGH FROM 11N136W TO 05N135W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W AND 300 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 05N TO 09N. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE U.S GREAT BASIN SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR SAN DIEGO TO 28N115W THEN DOWN TO 19N120W. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW IS NEAR 22N143W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE. 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER W WATERS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS PICKING UP MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE ITCZ W OF THE AREA AND TRANSPORTING IT NE INTO W WATERS IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED CIRRUS. OTHERWISE ...STRATOCUMULUS DOMINATES THE SKIES N OF 15N W OF 110W. TO THE N OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LIES AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 31N133W. DEEP LAYER RIDGING CAN BE FOUND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHERE A 1035 MB HIGH LIES NEAR 38N135W. MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND STRONG SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. HAS INDUCED NW TO N WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA AND W TO NEAR 128W...WITH NW SWELL TO 14 FT IN THIS AREA ORIGINATING FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODERATELY SURFACE RIDGING HAS ALSO INDUCED EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 16N. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING THE HIGH CENTER FROM THE W WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING OVER FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THE TRADE WINDS CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SUN. IN ADDITION...THE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OBSERVED BY SHIP BATFR53 AND THE COASTAL MEXICAN STATION OF PUERTO PENASCO WILL DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N140W TO AN ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 03N129W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE HAS HELPED THE CAUSE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 11N136W TO 05N135W. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTED IN THE TROPICS IS THE SW SWELL CURRENTLY INCHING INTO SW WATERS AND EXPECTED TO RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10 FT OVER S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS BY SAT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH OF THE COASTLINE OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH PERIODS AROUND 18 SECONDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. $$ LANDSEA