000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING TSTMS OVER PANAMA... SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS AT MOST ISOLATED AND WEAK NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AS UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS NOT ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ANY LONG DURATION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 05N MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE TO 90W FROM 5N TO 8N. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CURRENT IR NIGHT CHANNEL DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 7N. A BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N101W TO 6N103W MOVING W 16 KT....BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WAVE WAS DEPICTED HAVING A SHARP WIND SHIFT IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM LIGHT E WINDS TO THE E OF THE AXIS TO N 10-15 KT W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 8N92W 9N104W 9N115W 9N125W 7N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 139W...AND ALSO 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES SW TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N118W...AND STRETCHES SW TO 28N130W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA NEAR 189N143W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE E OF 100W OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO 18N112W TO 14N122W AND TO NEAR 13N134W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE RIDGE. THE PLUME...AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 129W-137W AND REACHES N TO 24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 12N AND E OF 115W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 20N105W TO 13N112W TO 7N120W. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLIDING E IS NW OF THE REGION AT 32N142W WITH ITS RIDGE SE TO 27N131W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OF 1034 MB IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 6N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N133W TO 26N124W TO 21N116W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CONUS IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W AS SHOWN IN IN A WINDSAT PASS FROM TODAY. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN A NW SWELL ARE INVADING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS THESE SEAS INTO THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT IN 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISHES THEM SLIGHTLY IN 48 HRS. BY 24 HRS...ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 127W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN N SWELL...AND TO 12 FT BY 48 HRS. A RATHER SMALL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-5 KT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ROUGHLY ALONG 127W/128W. CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER HAS SINCE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. E OF 110W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N100W FROM 17N106W TO 8N110W MOVING WESTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AS NOTED BY DERIVED-SATELLITE WIND DATA BECOME DIFFLUENT AS THEY APPROACH THE TROUGH HELPING TO SUSTAIN AND ADD FUEL TO CONVECTION RELATED TO THE WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N101W TO 6N103W AND WITH THAT DUE TO THE ITCZ NEAR THE WAVE. IN ADDITION...THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W. WITH REGARDS TO MARINE ISSUES...S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE INTERPRETED TO BE OCCURRING S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 99W-106W...AND S OF 5N BETWEEN 85W-99W WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS BRINGING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN ABOUT 24 HRS OVER THE AREA S OF 5N BETWEEN 92W-105W WITH WINDS THERE BEING SE TO S TO 20 KT...AND ALSO S OF 6N BETWEEN 105W-129W. SEAS BUILD INTO THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT IN 48 HRS S OF 9N BETWEEN 91W-106W. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED SE 20 KT WINDS BOUNDED FROM 24N TO 28N. IN ADDITION...A SE 20 KT WIND FROM "BATFR53" HAS BEEN REPORTED SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 42 HRS AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EVER PRESENT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA S THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SLACKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING TROUGH. $$ AGUIRRE