000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER MINIMAL WITH THIS WAVE AS MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
IS SHEARING THE TOPS OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMS. THE 
DEEPEST CONVECTION CONSISTED OF SCATTERED STRONG INTENSITY OVER 
MUCH OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 04N MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE ITCZ AS 
DESCRIBED BELOW.

A BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 101W FROM 7N TO 
15N MOVING W 17 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1700 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED A SHARP WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH A CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS 
FROM LIGHT E WINDS TO THE E OF THE AXIS TO N 10-15 KT W OF THE 
AXIS. DEEP CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS ALONG AND NEAR THE 
ITCZ AS STATED BELOW.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 7N90W 12N101W 8N111W 8N120W
8N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 100W-107W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 127W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-93W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N100W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES SW 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N115W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 31N119W...AND
STRETCHES SW TO 28N130W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 19N142W. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE E OF 100W OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW TO 18N112W TO 14N122W AND TO NEAR 13N134W. A PLUME OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DERIVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE 
RIDGE. THE PLUME...AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
...IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 129W-136W AND REACHES N TO 24N. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
IS SPREADING INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 12N AND
E OF 115W.

MODERATE SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 20N105W
TO 13N112W TO 7N120W. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLIDING
E IS NW OF THE REGION AT 32N144W WITH ITS RIDGE SE TO 27N131W. 
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N137W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N133W TO 26N124W TO 21N115W.
HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW 
CONUS IS ALLOWING FOR NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO FUNNEL 
INTO THE NE PORTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W AS SHOWN IN 
IN A WINDSAT PASS FROM TODAY. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS
UP TO 12 FT IN A NW SWELL ARE INVADING THIS PORTION OF THE
AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS THESE SEAS INTO THE RANGE OF 
10-15 FT IN 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISHES THEM SLIGHTLY IN 48 HRS.
BY 24 HRS...ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF 127W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN N SWELL...AND
TO 12 FT BY 48 HRS.

A RATHER SMALL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-5 KT IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ ROUGHLY ALONG 126W/127W WITH ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ.

E OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N100W FROM 17N106W
TO 8N110W MOVING WESTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY WINDS AS NOTED BY DERIVED-SATELLITE WIND DATA BECOME 
DIFFLUENT AS THEY APPROACH THE TROUGH HELPING TO SUSTAIN AND ADD 
FUEL TO CONVECTION RELATED TO THE WAVE ALONG 101W AND WITH THAT 
DUE TO THE ITCZ IN THAT VICINITY. IN ADDITION...THESE WINDS 
CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVES WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE 
FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO BEYOND 110W.

WITH REGARDS TO MARINE ISSUES...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WILL
USHER SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN ABOUT 24 HRS OVER THE AREA S OF 6N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND BUILDING TO 8-10 FT IN 48 HRS S OF 
9N BETWEEN 91W-110W.

$$
AGUIRRE