000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 02N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST HOURS 
AND CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS 
MAINLY FROM 05N TO 07N. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N98W TO 06N110W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WHERE 
THE WAVE AXIS MEETS THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 08N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE 
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 
96W.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 12N99W TO 08N115W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04N TO 07N E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES SW 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N115W
THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 20 
KT NEAR 20N136W. THE SHEAR AXIS THEN CONTINUES SW FROM THE 
CIRCULATION TO W OF THE AREA AT 11N142W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS 
RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR 
22N104W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO NEAR 09N140W. TO 
THE NW OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REFLECTION 
OF 1033 MB CENTERED NW OF THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 37N138W. THIS 
HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND DOMINATES 
MAINLY N OF 13N AND W OF 115W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS...9 TO 14 FT IN N SWELL ACROSS 
THE N WATERS ESPECIALLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W IN ABOUT 
12-24 HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 126W/127W. A 
FEW SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. WEAK TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
ARE NOTED BY SATELLITE WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 15N AND E OF 
115W. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE 
ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W.

SEAS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE N WATERS 
N OF ABOUT 20N AS N SWELL INVADES THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
RAISING SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT MAINLY S OF 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W. 

$$
GR