000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ACTIVE 
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES 
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OFF TOPS OF THE CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N94W TO 6N96W MOVING W 16 KT. ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W  
8N91W 9N105W 8N119W 8N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
101W-109W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED 
STATES SW TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N116W...THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 20 KT NEAR 20N136W. THE SHEAR AXIS 
THEN CONTINUES SW FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO SW OF 
THE AREA AT 16N140W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK GENERALLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT FROM 9N TO 13N IS ALONG 139W. THE TROUGH
IS ENHANCING NE TRADES FROM 11N TO 21N AND W OF 130W AS WAS NOTED
IN ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO JUST W 
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 3 DEG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION. ELSEWHERE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS. TO THE NW OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
COVERS THAT PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REFLECTION 
OF 1034 MB N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N140W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
HIGH SE TO 26N126W TO 19N117W. A COLD FRONT WAS IDENTIFIED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N124W...AND SW
TO W OF THE REGION AT 27N140W. IN ITS WAKE...A SURGE OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS IS PRESENT N OF 32N WITH SOME OF THIS
WIND AREA APPROACHING 30N. BY 48 HRS NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERED N OF 27N AND E OF 125W ALONG
WITH N SWELLS IN THE 9 TO 14 FT RANGE.

A NARROW NW TO SE MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED E TO ALONG THE 
GULF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
16N115W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 9N138W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 
FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION EARLIER 
ACTIVE
ALONG THE ITCZ IS BEING ENTRAINED NNE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N136W AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
16N115W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE NE TO NEAR 
19N106W. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SW 
TO 14N110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT WITHIN 350 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 19N104W TO 16N111W TO 11N125W.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 17N AND E OF
115W. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALONG 100W N OF 4N...AND 
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLIES WERE
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE ORIGINATING FROM THE 
ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W.

$$
AGUIRRE