000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 81W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS E OF THE WAVE TO ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 
TO 10N95W TO 9N110W TO 8N122W TO 12N132W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
81W-87W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SW UNITED 
STATES SW TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N117W...THEN BECAME A SHEAR AXIS TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 20 KT NEAR 20N136W. THE SHEAR AXIS 
THEN CONTINUED SW FROM THE CIRCULATION TO W OF THE AREA AT 
16N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPS THE LOW...AND 
THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 125W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 3 DEG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT WITHIN 
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS. TO THE NW OF 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING COVERED THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REFLECTION OF 
1033 MB W OF THE AREA NEAR 36N143W. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE 
HIGH SE TO 26N126W TO 19N115W. A COLD FRONT WAS IDENTIFIED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N129W TO W 
OF THE REGION AT 28140W WHERE IT WAS BECOMING DIFFUSE. IT WAS 
FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WHICH 
WERE ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N 
OF ABOUT 27N AND BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.

A NARROW NW TO SE MID/UPPER TROUGH HAD SHIFTED E TO ALONG THE 
GULF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
17N115W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A COL POINT AT 11N137W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 12N135W TO 7N138W MOVING W AT 17 KT. THE 
TROUGH WAS ENHANCING THE NE TRADES TO ITS N REACHING TO 21N AND
W OF 130W AS WAS EVIDENT IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.
ITCZ CONVECTION WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON
AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN 
THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION 
WAS BEING ENTRAINED NNE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 20N136W AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N115W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE NE TO NEAR 18N106W. A 
NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SW TO 
14N110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT WITHIN 350 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
19N104W TO 16N111W TO 11N125W.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 17N AND E OF
115W. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALONG 101W N OF 6N...AND 
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLIES WERE
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE ORIGINATING FROM THE 
ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W.

$$
AGUIRRE