000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAS ALONG 78W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N-6N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDED FROM 13N90W TO 6N93W MOVING W 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W
TO 9N93W TO 9N101W TO 9N114W TO 9N123W TO 10N132W TO 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WAS NOTED FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
131W-133W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-136W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SW UNITED SW
TO A  VERY SMALL AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N117W...THEN BECAME A SHEAR AXIS 
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION  NEAR 21N131W...WHICH WAS MOVING W 16 
KT. THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 16N140W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPS THE LOW...AND THE AREA N 
OF 17N W OF 125W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
GENERALLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE NW OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
COVERED THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EJECTING 
EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WELL TO THE N OF 
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED W OF 
THE AREA NEAR 29N145W WITH A RIDGE ESE TO 26N124W...THEN SE TO 
17N105W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 112W.

A NARROW MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE SE OF 
THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND EXTENDED S TO 17N109W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 13N121W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A COL 
POINT AT 11N134W. THE SE PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE W OF THE REGION EXTENDS SE TO 10N134W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 12N131W TO 6N133W MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THE 
TROUGH WAS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. SOME
OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION WAS BEING ENTRAINED NNE BETWEEN 
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N131W AND THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N121W. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE 
NE TO NEAR 15N110W. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDED SW ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO SW TO 14N110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT WITHIN 350 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 19N104W TO 16N111W TO 11N125W.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE WINDS TO THE S OF ABOUT 17N AND E OF
115W. A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALONG 101W N OF 6N...AND 
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLIES WERE
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE ORIGINATING FROM THE 
ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO NEAR 120W.

$$
AGUIRRE